Bitcoin rallied to kick off the week, exploding above the $40K level before pulling back a bit, ending Tuesday's session around $39K. This is bullish as Bitcoin is now trading back above the 50 Week EMA, giving Bitcoin a technical bullish divergence and a decisive end to the short-term downtrend.
(July 27, 2021 8:30PM EST)
Short-Term
Bitcoin is cautiously back in bull mode as it battles with resistance at the $40K level. Since briefly breaking above the level early Monday, it has maintained a high-$30Ks level, indicating high buying pressure and little selling. After all, nearly $1B of shorts were liquidated in this run up. Now, it remains to be seen if this rally will be sustained. However, with bullish technical divergences on the Weekly and Daily charts now, Bitcoin is primed for a brief retracement to test higher support (50 Day EMA around $34K) before reattempting $40K. If Bitcoin breaks above $40K, there's not much resistance between there and $50K, so we could see a quick move from the bottom range of a $10K range to the top end.
On the contrary, if Bitcoin breaks back below the 50 Day EMA around $34K and the $30K level, BTC would likely drop to the mid- to-low $20Ks, the previous cycle's ATH, where there should be ample buying pressure. This is ultimately our line in the sand; if $20K holds, we can bounce and start grinding back higher. If BTC breaks lower than $20K, then it will have retraced nearly the entire bull market rally thus far and we may be in a market purgatory for months if not a couple years. I lean much heavier towards the former scenario.
There's simply too much bullishness in the space for BTC to prematurely enter another bear market. Demand is higher than ever—and growing. Supply is low—and decreasing. There are more and new ways for new investors and users to buy Bitcoin and crypto than ever before—and growing. Simply put, the fundamentals are extremely bullish and only becoming more bullish. While short-term price action is volatile, over the medium-long-term, this should be reflected in the price. I, as well as many others still very much expect BTC price to be well above $65K no later than Q4 2021.
BTC Dominance
BTC.D is on the rise again with a new higher high as it approaches resistance at the 50 Week EMA just under 50% dominance. Bitcoin has been gradually siphoning crypto capital back into the space's mega cap, though much of it has been diluted by altcoins with cult followings like Doge despite abysmal fundamentals and lagging returns during bull markets. A break above the 50 Week EMA would send BTC to local resistance around ~53% and then 60%. A break above 60% likely correlates with Bitcoin at or near a new ATH.
Long-Term
BTFD. Fundamentals have not changed. By nearly every measure, we have not gotten anywhere near a market cycle top; in fact, we are maybe halfway through this bull market. What do you do during bull markets? Buy. The. Dip.
