A “deep and special partnership.” That’s Boris Johnsons’ stated aim for relations between the United Kingdom and the European Union following what may turn out to be an historic agreement if it passes parliament.
Bitcoin’s price however was meant to reach $16,000 this month and a messy no-deal exit could have been a catalyst for it.
Not that the British people would have allowed such no deal exit, but with bitcoin’s price at $8,000 in mid-October, is the prophecy off?
We’re obviously having a bit of fun. Bitcoin doesn’t quite correlate with any asset. When it does, it is usually just temporary.
Moreover this obviously isn’t some ordained prophecy, more of a guess based on past behavior. But it’s a nice frame for a serious point. Would this deal be good or not for the economy, with Schrodinger’s bitcoin benefiting from either.
The Case For Yes
The British people, and the world, have a very important choice to make and in many ways that choice can be nothing more than “feels.”
As 2020 nears there’s a very big case to make for a new decade, new optimism. To change the air. To close a chapter. To sort of re-generate.
Not least because there’s a sense of optimism in Britain. There’s a sense of sharpness, of style, of punkness, of can do attitude, and of course of sophistication.
If this vote passes, then it can be a new Britania. Not leading the waves but of waving the flag of liberalism with new confidence, with its own loud global voice in the closest and most special relationship with USA and Europe.
A distinct identity due to its island nature. A trading nation as always. Diverse and welcoming. Tolerant and peaceful.
For now, megaphone diplomacy is still continuing, but if the vote passes, you’d think the tune would change as there would be a new reality and a certain reality. There would be reason to see the good side more than the bad.
And there is a good side. Europe has to unite. It maybe can not with Britain in it as the island, never in its history, had say on the continent. It was always sort of busy with its own matters while Germany or France or whoever tried to secure their own land borders.
Maybe there was no choice but brexit. Maybe there was no other way. Maybe and we hope probably, none of this even matters.
UK is not leaving Europe. It can’t. Brits can go peddle on the sea shores all they want, but UK ain’t moving an inch.
Britain is European and it will always remain European. But in a stronger Europe, a United Europe, a sovereign Europe.
The EU-UK special partnership can be a formidable force. Their integration, to the point they’re effectively one just not as a legal entity, can create a very powerful voice if it is managed well.
That if suggests a gamble and there are gambles in all potential choices, but as democracies such choices can change if events change. The people can never bind themselves.
They can always elect Libdems to official opposition or even government. Maybe they’ll go with red too, but polls have time and again shown Boris in a significant lead.
He’s a liberal conservative. Free trade, pro managed migration, pro the international order, pro optimism.
Whatever the latter means, but, the world needs it. Desperately. We need to live for once. Be at peace. Be friends. Be objective. Be civilized.
In that context of optimism you’d think bitcoin would roar for the economy would be doing well and thus the limited asset has to squeeze more demand within its supply.
The question so being whether Boris is who we think he is. The cosmopolitan. The diverse. The pro-free market. The European.
The Case For No
A UK thorn above, a Turkish thorn below, a Russia thorn at the other end, and a Europe encircled.
The rise of European patriotism, proxy wars, a continued geopolitical plan by the devil, a game of empires with no aim but people’s subjugation.
Strong and atrocious words, but there are snakes and there are many. Sometime like in 30s Germany, they take power.
The millennial generation especially, which hopes to live as long as the queen or longer, has to think not of tomorrow but of the next two, maybe even five, decades.
That’s however if no deal, if no integration with UK to the apparently proposed extent. If UK had different and conflicting strategic objectives. If it was nothing more than just a US vassal.
You’d think instead UK and EU would be fully aligned strategically even if not formally under one union. They may actually be more aligned if they’re not in one union.
Which?
The problem is if there is no agreement the prophecy may well be fulfilled as people rush to hedge their pounds or euros, but if there is one it may also be fulfilled as certainty is reached in an amicable, even special, way and thus both economies grow and they have more money to take risks on things like bitcoin.
So, in many ways we don’t care provided there is a very close union, or a special deal, as there is really already when it comes to the almost full merger of the UK and French army so logically you’d expect things would go as we think they would with UK and EU sort of one economically but not formally.
We’re tempted, very, very on balance, to say just pass it. Get to the special partnership stuff, let’s see what the real deal is, by which point it would become clear whether real best buddies or some stupid game, and by which point the British people can again decide if in or out.
UK is a net contributor to EU so if it wants to go back in next year after they reach some actual deal, then you’d think EU would be happy to allow them in with the same veto, rebates whatever as now.
If they don’t, then whatever. If they do, it wouldn’t be the same, but it wouldn’t quite be the same staying even now. Well, for a bit. After that, like school children everyone will forget because the people can not bind themselves.
If this doesn’t pass then there would have to be a second referendum, and we’d hear Farage talking nonsense, and what if the people then vote for the deal anyway?
They like Boris, and they voted leave. There’s a context. The euro area has to banking union etc. Two tables and so on.
So UK leaving can also be seen as a favor to EU and a rebuke of the cartoonish geopolitical nonsense that some idiots like to profess.
But frankly we’re happy it’s not our decision. If it was, and if it came to it, we’d vote for the deal because we think Boris would do what we think he will, and if he doesn’t he’d be out.
If we’re wrong then so be it. Someone has to be wrong. The principle is unchanged however and can never be changed, whether in a democracy, dictatorship, or anything. The people can not bind themselves.
If Boris seeks a close union in as far as passporting and all that, touches not negative feelings, and speaks of optimism, then let’s see what he can do.
If he turns out to be a snake, well, there are cats and butterflies too.
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