Bitcoin’s recent price drop may be one that will be hard for the cryptocurrency to recover from as institutions aren’t stepping in to buy the dip and analysts at JPMorgan estimate that the cryptocurrency’s medium-term fair value could be between $23,000 and $35,000.
In a note sent to clients, first reported on by Business Insider, JPMorgan analysts detailed that their bitcoin price estimate was based on the current volatility ratio of bitcoin to gold. The bank has in the past estimated that the price of bitcoin could hit $140,000 if it matches the allocation and volatility profile of the precious metal.
The bank now wrote that “full convergence or equalization of volatilities or allocations [between gold and bitcoin] is unlikely in the foreseeable future.” The price of bitocin plunged from a $64,000 all-time high seen last month to a low under the $30,000 mark before recovering over numerous factors, including environmental concerns and China’s crackdown on cryptocurrency mining.
JPMorgan notably sees China’s crackdown as a positive factor for the flagship cryptocurrency over the long run. The bank’s note reads it “accelerates a shift away from China’s high share in bitcoin’s hash rate, reducing concentration.”
To the bank’s analysts, bitcoin’s price plunge was more a result of weak flows and price dynamics and not a result of China’s crackdown. Institutional investors, they added, aren’t moving in to buy bitcoin even at current levels.
More than a month after the May 19 crypto crash, bitcoin funds continue to bleed, even as inflows into physical gold ETFs stopped. This suggests that institutional investors, who tend to invest via regulated vehicles such as publicly listed bitcoin funds or CME bitcoin futures, still exhibit little appetite to buy the bitcoin dip.
JPMorgan also sees the end of a six-month lock-up period on the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust as a potential signal the price of BTC could move downward in the near future, as $4 billion flowed into the trust fund in December and January.
As the six-month lock-up period ends in June and July, some investors may be about to sell some of their holdings given the cryptocurrency market’s current volatility. JPMorgan’s analysts noted their signals “remain overall bearish.”
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The views and opinions expressed by the author, or any people mentioned in this article, are for informational purposes only, and they do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice. Investing in or trading cryptoassets comes with a risk of financial loss.
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