FED convened. Meanwhile, the data coming to the FED caused the economy to stagnate a bit in terms of unemployment, that is, job demands, and I think the declines in gold and other bitcoins suddenly stopped. The downward movement in the indices has calmed down somewhat, even in the short term. The FED was dragging its feet, I think it will not cut interest rates this year, but when the latest data created the atmosphere that the FED might act sooner, gold, silver and other metals, which we call precious metals or considered safe havens, increased in commodity markets from time to time, but these two It is very important, of course, but on the other hand, there are 3-4 major indices; Here is Nasdaq, S&P, the father of all fathers, of course Dow Jones, DAX on the European side. Although there are others, but of course the German economy is more important as the economy that keeps the Euro afloat. There is a natural recovery here.
Nasdaq has already completed its downtrend. In other words, it has covered the minimum distance it should have covered after the breakout in the downward direction starting from April 12. But then it stopped. What is expected when a decline is coming is that once the averages go down, you expect the bottoms to move towards whatever the bottoms are under normal circumstances, so that the buyer group that is below will actually wait below again and create purchases. He turned back upstairs before he got there. The averages became Deadly Cross for a while. Now it looks like we're going back to Golden Cross again. In the movement that started on April 12, there is a return to the bowl. So it looks like there is a journey towards 18500 again. Seems to test 17750 which is closer to the average. But the 20-day period is also moving upwards. If there is a Golden Cross around 17763, the average income will hold this.
There is now a first bottom of 16973 and a second bottom of 17161. Think of it like a double bottom. like an ascending triangle here between 16973 and 17820. It broke out from the first bottom, we are hitting it up from the second bottom. Before this duo goes up as much as the thickness of the bottom, they get stuck around the historical peak of 18464 and struggle there. Earlier too, traders look at 18340. Because an upward move would encounter selling at 18340, there would be a struggle. After passing there, you will travel towards 18464. After this movement, a 18500 - 17700 trough is formed. If that bowl doubles, it becomes 20000. So the exact milestone comes. Even if it is not in the near term, if the economy goes up even more with the FED interest rate cut and growth increases, then companies will benefit.
Of course, from these things, Dow Jones, including Nasdaq, has to climb upwards. So the money flows towards there. The fact that it falls below the average again is a bit annoying. If it goes below the line connecting the bottoms, this will be annoying. This delays the upward movement. Those who hold a position thinking it will go down will start making money this time because the supports below can be tested as soon as the line connecting the bottoms is broken. But if it turns from the average and goes up, it means its intention is up.
Dow Jones also rose above the averages. 37611 first bottom, 37754 second bottom. We are also breaking the falling trend line starting at 39889. The price resistance was also passed at 38552. The worst case scenario is that the 37611 - 38552 band folds upwards. Take care of yourself now. It may drag you once again towards 39601. When it drags, the gap at the beginning of April is closed. Once again, that might be his intention. The point that should be noted here is that the averages are coming back again to make a golden intersection over the 20-day and 50-day. If they can keep it above the averages here, the next move will be around 39500 again.
When you look at the beginning of April, another trough may form. In other words, folding a 2500-point pot between 40000 and 37500 sets a target of 42500 in the long term. So this time a journey towards 42500 begins. Unless it goes below the average with a downward movement, especially unless 37611 is broken, which would be bad. The flag may suddenly turn into an upside down flag, you never know. But if they can keep the price above the averages, the buyers hold the 20-day average move towards, say, 38552. Once it rises from here, it means there is a journey upwards towards 39550. With the descent starting from 39889 and the ascent starting from 37611, the semicircle has a path up to 39889. Then we need to look at it that way. Take care of yourself. So this, of course, follows the Fed. He's trying to sniff out messages from the FED. He's trying to figure it out, I wonder what the FED is saying?
DAX turned up again. It touched the 50-day average and turned upwards. Currently the 50 day average is at 17836. There is also a 20-day average in 18014. The 20-day average did not fall below the 50-day average. In other words, it did not cut down, the price went down, but the price held on for 50 days. Now it seems like it is aiming towards 18500 again. If the resistance at 18235 is passed, it goes to 18567. Then if they FOLD this, the target is 19600. They will probably make 20000 what is 19600. So you never know, folding is just the minimum distance that can be covered. How can this turn around here?
A downward movement, especially a movement below 17626, will address other things after this time. Then, we are heading towards closing the gaps in February. In the negative scenario, it seems to fall as low as 17275, with at least upward reactions. For such a decline, a move below the averages and the last bottom at 17626 is required. Simply put, in the shortest term, you can fold up the horizontal area of the 17836 - 18235 band and find the top of 18567, or when you think of it as a triangle, combine the bottoms, define the height of the triangle and place it above the breakout point of the triangle, 18800 appears.
The 20-day average for ounce gold is at 2314 and the 50-day average is at 2250. It was breaking inside the ascending channel. When it breaks, we are now heading somewhere else. Because the FED pretended to reduce interest rates, but did not reduce them, but delayed them. This time, it collapsed from 2400's to lower 2300's. There is resistance at 2352. Now, there may be a very small reverse head-to-shoulder lying down here. In such a case, we go upwards again. If the falling trend starting from 2417 breaks upwards, we say we will go at least up to 2418. He goes to the old historical peak once again. No, if the average goes down here, then it will come down to 2150. But for this to happen, interest rates and the dollar must gain significant value. Currently, as interest rates are reduced, the expectation in precious metals is always upward. According to these scenarios, you maintain your position or open a new position.
An ounce of silver returned to $26, as expected. This is where the hill (25.91) that has already been crossed is located. Returning from 26.02. The 50-day average is at 26.04. Now there is such a story in silver. The 20-day average is almost breaking upwards. Here, when we continue the current movement with the reverse head and shoulders formation and then break it off, when we add the reverse head and shoulder thickness to the top, it comes back to 29.79 - 29.50. It may only encounter resistance around 29 due to the recent peaks. But a downward movement, which will collapse those who expect an upward movement, is a downward break of the 50-day moving average. That is, the price goes below 26. If it goes below 26, you look at 24.5. The FED's interest rate cuts force this to go up, but that is a must in the markets. You need to keep every possibility in custody.
Brent went below average. It seemed to backfire a bit at the beginning of April. Then it broke out of the uptrend channel. The upward trend started at 72.55 at the beginning of December and ended at 91.58 at the beginning of April. I think this might happen around 80. They don't let this go anyway.
The dollar index also encountered sales as it approached 107. It fell to where the 50-day moving average is at 106.49. The deepening downward movement is a breaking movement towards the bottom of the channel. This time it goes to 102.5 - 103 again. If it holds and goes up, the seller will come back to 106.5. Afterwards, it is between 107.5 - 107.35. If this goes down, it will cause upward movements in gold, silver, markets and indices. There is an escape from the dollar, it means they are moving towards other areas.
Euro - dollar should have gone up and then it went down. But it looks like the FED will have a harder time with the latest data. The upper part of the horizontal area is approximately 1.11, the lower part is 1.05, and the falling trend starting from the 1.1143 peak seen in December is important. Breaking this creates the expectation of going head to shoulder. It's worth paying attention.
There's a nice little tiny reverse shoulder going on in GBP - USD. The falling trend, which started from the 1.2894 peak in March, is breaking. It did not completely go down from the horizontal area formed since December. Since the upward trend that had occurred since October was broken, that brought sales. Then there was price support at 1.25. It didn't hold up there either and it slid down. The bowl formation that started in March is completed and targets 1.29 and then 1.35.
Bitcoin suddenly went up to 56552, or rather they took it. After the rapid rise in February and March, it does not create a zone where any buyers come against the decline between 50000 and 60000 dollars. Because there was no such collision on the way up. This time, the one who goes fast seems to fall fast, he suddenly let himself go. Fortunately, the Fed came to the rescue. More precisely, data came to the rescue. Now he will push the FED again. So under normal circumstances, it would be adios amigos as soon as the horizontal area starting in mid-March was broken. It could have been a journey up to 50000's. It's a little harder now. The downward trend that started from the peak of 72797 in April has been passed. When the resistance at 67232 is broken, it means it goes to 73410.
Ethereum did not go down as much as the triangle height between 4098 - 3055 in March. So it didn't go for $2000. It broke the triangle, but it didn't go down very far, it came back. For a bowl formation scenario starting from the 4098 peak in March, the downtrend starting from this peak must be broken. The sale has already started on May 6. It immediately caught the resistance in the downtrend. If the resistance at 6347 is broken after the falling trend is broken, it can reach the averages and break again towards 4098. Thus, a bowl formation is completed. If the 4100 - 2800 bowl is folded up, it goes towards 4500. Everything happens in the markets. I can't say that everything is possible. I can't say it won't go anywhere. Anything can happen.
It was the last intervention against the Japanese yen. While our target had been talking about 198 for a long time, it suddenly broke away from the averages and reached 200. But then came the sale. There is a 50-day average at 191.70. It seems to be rebounding a bit, but in the past, whenever the Bank of Japan intervened in the yen, the yen gained value for a while. That's why we shouldn't be too insistent that it will go up. Because this sale by the Central Bank creates concerns that it may touch the market even further, buyers will come a little less. In my opinion, the upward trend seems to be over in the short term. So, it is necessary to follow the Bank of Japan closely in JPY.
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